Many truths have been made self evident throughout the history of man, water is wet, the sky is blue and don’t take a quarterback with the first pick in an NFL draft.

Sure there are outliers in the results of any data compiled to find a mean and median, but in the end there are always incontrovertible facts revealed in the research. Take a look at the last ten NFL drafts within the top 12 picks and mark how many quarterbacks have lived up to their early round billing.

Here is a list of the quarterbacks over the last ten years that were selected in the top 12 of their particular drafts and whether or not they are a stud or a bust. For the purpose of this article, there will not be any gray area on grading whether each particular quarterback is a stud or a bust, they have to be one or the other:

STUD
- Matt Ryan
- Jay Cutler
- Eli Manning*
- Philip Rivers
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Carson Palmer*
- Donovan McNabb
- Peyton Manning*

BUST
- JaMarcus Russell*
- Vince Young
- Matt Leinart
- Alex Smith*
- Byron Leftwich
- David Carr*
- Joey Harrington
- Michael Vick*
- Tim Couch*
- Akili Smith
- Daunte Culpepper
- Cade McNown
- Ryan Leaf

* denotes 1st overall pick

This data suggests that since the 1998 draft, for every successful quarterback selected in the top 12, there are 1.625 times more failures. For every Peyton Manning there is a Ryan Leaf, for every Carson Palmer there is a Byron Leftwich. Many of the quarterbacks in the bust column have turned in serviceable careers such as Leftwich, but in the end they did not live up to their early selection potential.

A high pick on a quarterback could set an organization into the stratosphere or doldrums for years to come. Indianapolis has experienced nothing but winning since they made Peyton Manning their number one pick in 1998, whereas Cleveland is still trying to recover after selecting Tim Couch number one in 1999. Ben Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls since the Steelers made him their number one pick, whereas Alex Smith has San Francisco in quite the hole trying to figure out to do with their former number one overall pick.

History can tell us that if the Detroit Lions do indeed select Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford with the number one overall pick, they have a 38 percent chance of success and a 62 percent chance of failure. Even with the successes at the quarterback spot, only three quarterbacks of the 21 selected in the top 12 over the past 10 years have led their teams to a Super Bowl victory which is the ultimate end result that any successful NFL front office executive is looking to accomplish through the draft each and every year.

A closer look at the quarterbacks selected at the number one overall slot show that three have been studs and five have been busts. That is a slightly lower success rate of 37.5% compared to the 38% of the overall pool. Detroit has many needs to address in this year’s draft and a crippling choice at number one could set the franchise back even further than last year’s 0-16 campaign could ever do.

Due to the inordinate amount of money that the Lions will have to guarantee to their first selection, it would stand to reason that the Lions need to take a safer pick than a questionable quarterback with upside. Left tackle could be the most reliable position and the Lions could help solidify the core of their line before it begins to look for playmakers. OT Eugene Monroe and OT Jason Smith may be the easiest picks in this draft, but slotting them in the correct draft order is not. OT Andre Smith and OT Michael Oher are both solid selections as well, with all four players likely to be gone in the first 11 picks. Linebacker Aaron Curry could also be an intriguing choice but OT is the safest and most effective route for the Lions to begin the process of turning their franchise around.

The added benefit to drafting an OT at the first pick is the fact that if the pick does not pan out, they will still make very good guards. Look no further than Oakland’s Robert Gallery on how a high tackle prospect fell short, but is salvaging a solid career at guard. If a quarterback is selected and the pick misfires, look no further than Joey Harrington to see how that can set a franchise back for five plus seasons.

The smart choice for the Lions is to select an offensive tackle at number one and possibly look for a quarterback at the 20th, 33rd, 65th or 82nd picks. If the Lions could do it, select OT Jason Smith at number one and then package together the 20th and 33rd picks to move up and grab quarterback Mark Sanchez somewhere in the top 10.

As you can see from the below data, quality starting quarterbacks are definitely capable of coming out of the later picks/rounds and don’t necessarily need to come out of the top 12. Below each year, you can follow the overall pick number and which team drafted each quarterback:

2008
#3 – Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Notable later round QB selections:
#18 – Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
#186 – Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins

2007
#1 – JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders
Notable later round QB selections:
#92 – Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills
#217 – Tyler Thigpen, Coastal Carolina

2006
#3 – Vince Young, Tennessee Titans
#10 – Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals
#11 – Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos
Notable later round QB selections:
#64 – Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings
#194 – Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2005
#1 – Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Notable later round QB selections:
#24 – Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
#25 – Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins
#106 – Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears
#213 – Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
#230 – Matt Cassel, New England Patriots

2004
#1 – Eli Manning, San Diego Chargers
#4 – Philip Rivers, New York Giants
#11 – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Notable later round QB selections:
#22 – J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills
#90 – Matt Schaub, Atlanta Falcons

2003
#1 – Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
#7 – Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable later round QB selections:
#97 – Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#110 – Seneca Wallace, Seattle Seahawks

2002
#1 – David Carr, Houston Texans
#3 – Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions
Notable later round QB selections:
#108 – David Gerrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
#186 – J.T. O’Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
#235 – Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders (top Raiders WR)

2001
#1 – Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Notable later round QB selections:
#32 – Drew Brees, San Diego Chargers
#109 – Sage Rosenfels, Washington Redskins

2000
*no quarterbacks selected in top 12
Notable later round QB selections:
#18 – Chad Pennington, New York Jets
#168 – Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
#199 – Tom Brady, New England Patriots

1999
#1 – Tim Couch, Cleveland Browns
#2 – Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
#3 – Akili Smith, Cincinnati Bengals
#11 – Daunte Culpepper, Minnesota Vikings
#12 – Cade McNown, Chicago Bears
Notable later round QB selections:
#50 – Shaun King, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#131 – Aaron Brooks, Green Bay Packers

1998
#1 – Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
#2 – Ryan Leaf, San Diego Chargers
Notable later round QB selections:
#60 – Charlie Batch, Detroit Lions
#91 – Brian Griese, Denver Broncos
#187 – Matt Hasselbeck, Green Bay Packers

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